[Retire Early]
The 'Mother-of-All'
Safe Withdrawal Studies
                     
Retire Early "Mother-of-All" Safe Withdrawal Studies -- Shiller's 1871-2002 Database -- Version 1.61 REHP Calculator (Nov. 7, 2002 release)
-------------------30-Year Pay Out Period -- 60% stock------------------------ -------------------40-Year Pay Out Period -- 70% stock------------------------
-------12 x 102 + (9/16/1929)  = 1,225 Pay Out Periods Examined----------- -------12 x 92 + (9/16/1929)  = 1,105 Pay Out Periods Examined-----------
Month 100% Safe 99% safe 95% safe 90% safe Month 100% Safe 99% safe 95% safe 90% safe
Jan 4.12% 4.15% 4.42% 4.55% Jan 3.70% 3.90% 4.13% 4.26%
Feb 4.12% 4.13% 4.41% 4.58% Feb 3.93% 4.06% 4.18% 4.42%
Mar 4.18% 4.21% 4.40% 4.61% Mar 4.01% 4.03% 4.22% 4.38%
Apr 4.17% 4.17% 4.37% 4.60% Apr 4.13% 4.17% 4.26% 4.33%
May 4.19% 4.32% 4.39% 4.63% May 4.11% 4.17% 4.33% 4.49%
Jun 4.28% 4.32% 4.51% 4.68% Jun 4.14% 4.23% 4.40% 4.56%
Jul 4.31% 4.32% 4.44% 4.75% Jul 4.13% 4.17% 4.43% 4.52%
Aug 4.09% 4.27% 4.39% 4.62% Aug 3.67% 4.08% 4.20% 4.34%
Sep 3.94% 4.30% 4.41% 4.69% Sep 3.52% 4.13% 4.22% 4.41%
16-Sep-29 3.91% 4.30% 4.41% 4.69% 16-Sep-29 3.49% 4.14% 4.22% 4.41%
Oct 4.22% 4.25% 4.37% 4.74% Oct 3.85% 4.06% 4.30% 4.57%
Nov 4.19% 4.22% 4.61% 4.71% Nov 4.06% 4.23% 4.30% 4.36%
Dec 4.22% 4.23% 4.60% 4.69% Dec 4.13% 4.23% 4.33% 4.45%
Average 4.15% 4.25% 4.44% 4.66% Average 3.91% 4.12% 4.27% 4.42%
Minimum 3.91% 4.13% 4.37% 4.55% Minimum 3.49% 3.90% 4.13% 4.26%
-------------------50-Year Pay Out Period -- 70% stock------------------------ -------------------60-Year Pay Out Period -- 75% stock------------------------
-------12 x 82 + (9/16/1929)  = 985 Pay Out Periods Examined----------- -------12 x 72 + (9/16/1929)  = 865 Pay Out Periods Examined-----------
Month 100% Safe 99% safe 95% safe 90% safe Month 100% Safe 99% safe 95% safe 90% safe
Jan 3.64% 3.75% 3.89% 4.13% Jan 3.64% 3.71% 3.77% 4.02%
Feb 3.61% 3.86% 3.93% 4.15% Feb 3.60% 3.83% 3.84% 3.98%
Mar 3.68% 3.84% 3.97% 4.19% Mar 3.68% 3.81% 3.90% 4.16%
Apr 3.88% 3.94% 4.00% 4.19% Apr 3.83% 3.88% 3.95% 4.13%
May 3.93% 3.97% 4.12% 4.27% May 3.91% 3.95% 4.01% 4.11%
Jun 3.98% 3.99% 4.18% 4.32% Jun 3.91% 3.95% 4.08% 4.23%
Jul 3.81% 3.95% 4.15% 4.30% Jul 3.83% 3.94% 3.98% 4.23%
Aug 3.42% 3.77% 3.90% 4.06% Aug 3.26% 3.79% 3.84% 3.97%
Sep 3.30% 3.92% 3.92% 4.10% Sep 3.13% 3.78% 3.85% 4.05%
16-Sep-29 3.26% 3.85% 3.92% 4.11% 16-Sep-29 3.10% 3.78% 3.86% 4.05%
Oct 3.61% 3.74% 4.03% 4.25% Oct 3.45% 3.76% 3.94% 4.11%
Nov 3.75% 4.02% 4.03% 4.11% Nov 3.75% 3.94% 3.97% 4.06%
Dec 3.82% 3.97% 4.09% 4.23% Dec 3.82% 3.90% 4.03% 4.13%
Average 3.67% 3.89% 4.01% 4.19% Average 3.61% 3.85% 3.92% 4.09%
Minimum 3.26% 3.74% 3.89% 4.06% Minimum 3.10% 3.71% 3.77% 3.97%